Trends in incidence and antimicrobial resistance for five major causes of bacteraemia in a Canadian metropolitan area, 2006-22: a genomic and antimicrobial use cohort study

Pham, T. M., Smith, J. T., Mortimer, T. D., Grad, Y., Earl, A. M., Lewis, I. A., PRIME Consortium,

10.64898/2026.08.27.26361471 · was preprinted

biomedical

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Abstract

Background Using a population-based cohort from the Calgary Health Zone (CHZ), Canada, we integrated longitudinal antimicrobial susceptibility and prescribing data with the whole genome sequences of five major pathogens. We aimed to assess how antimicrobial resistance (AMR) responds to prescribing changes and determine which bacterial strains shape these dynamics. Methods We analysed antibiotic prescribing rates, clinical and genomic data from 7,271 Staphylococcus aureus, 1,609 Enterococcus faecalis, 801 Enterococcus faecium, 11,363 Escherichia coli, and 2,319 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates, associated with bacteraemia episodes in the CHZ between 2006-2022. Genomic clusters (referred to as strains) were identified using StrainGST and assigned to known sequence types (STs) or clonal complexes (CCs). Strain-level incidence, stratified by community-onset (isolates collected [≤]48h after admission) and hospital-onset (>48h after admission), AMR phenotypes, and prescribing rates were modelled using negative-binomial and binomial regression. Temporal trends were quantified using average annual percentage change (AAPC). Findings Between 2010-2022, fluoroquinolone prescribing declined in both community (AAPC=-6.8% [95% CI -8.1, -5.4]; p<0.0001) and hospital settings (AAPC=-5.1% [-6.5, -3.7]; p<0.0001). This was accompanied by a significant reduction in fluoroquinolone resistance among Gram-positive species. Specifically, S aureus bacteraemia resistant to clinically important antibiotics, cloxacillin, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, and clindamycin, declined from 2006 to 2022, mostly in hospital-onset cases (AAPC=-16.0%, [-19.3%, -12.7%], p<0.0001). In E coli, ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin resistance were clustered in ST131 and the emerging ST1193; the latter increased steadily, particularly in community-onset cases (AAPC=17.7%, [0.0%, 30.0%], p<0.0001). CTX-M-27-producing E coli ST131 strains increased (AAPC=23.8%, [17.4%, 30.5%], p<0.0001) between 20082022, while CTX-M-14-producing E coli ST131 declined (AAPC=-15.9%, [-21.3%, -10.2%], p<0.0001) between 2013-2022. These trends were paralleled by an increase in community cephalosporin prescribing (AAPC=7.3%, [4.2%, 10.5%], p<0.0001) between 2010-2022. For K pneumoniae, hypervirulent ST23 was most common (N=88) with an increasing trend in incidence (AAPC=3.0%, [-2.8%, 9.2%]) between 2006-2019. Conclusions The contrasting resistance trends between Gram-positive and Gram-negative species underscore the complexity of AMR control efforts. Effective strategies will require stewardship efforts targeting multiple drug classes, genomic surveillance for emerging resistant strains, and interventions extending beyond hospital settings.

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